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2024-12-14 11:35:17

Huatai Securities: It is expected that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25bp in December, but the path of interest rate cut in 2025 is highly uncertain. Huatai Securities said that the overall inflation in November in the United States was in line with expectations, and the slight cooling of service inflation partially eased the market's concerns about inflation rebound. It is expected that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25bp in December, but the path of interest rate cut in 2025 is highly uncertain. Recently, the overall economic momentum of the United States has rebounded: from September to November, the PMI of Markit manufacturing in the United States has rebounded for three consecutive months; After the election, enterprises, especially small enterprises, are expected to improve, and the recent NFIB SME confidence index has rebounded significantly; The latest Atlanta GDP Now shows that the fourth quarter GDP growth rate of the United States is 3.3% year-on-year. However, considering that the unemployment rate data rebounded in November, and the recent inflation is still relatively moderate, we expect that the recent data may not prevent the Fed from cutting interest rates at its December meeting next week. However, in 2025, the growth and inflation path of the United States was disturbed by the Trump policy, and the Federal Reserve may "make a camera choice" on the basis of watching the overall economic trend. There is uncertainty in the path of interest rate cut in 2025.The yield of 10-year Japanese government bonds rose by 1 basis point to 1.075%.Zhong Xuegao's subsidiary was forced to execute 16.62 million yuan. According to the legal litigation information, recently, Zhongmao (Shanghai) Food Technology Co., Ltd. added a piece of information about the person to be executed, with the execution target of 16.62 million yuan. The enforcement court is the Yangpu District People's Court in Shanghai. Zhongmao (Shanghai) Food Technology Co., Ltd. was established in June 2020. The legal representative is Wang Keqin, with a registered capital of RMB 10 million, and it is wholly owned by Zhong Xuegao Food (Shanghai) Co., Ltd. Tianyan risk information shows that the company has more than 20 pieces of information about executed persons, and the total amount of execution exceeds 31.62 million yuan. In addition, there are also a number of consumption restriction orders, untrustworthy executed persons (Lao Lai) and final case information.


CITIC Securities: The resonance between supply and demand of medical beauty accelerates the space expansion, and the difference in operating ability promotes the evolution of the industry structure. CITIC Securities Research Report stated that the medical beauty industry has both medical and consumption attributes, and the medical attribute has strong product-driven characteristics, while the consumption attribute has high operating ability requirements. The medical beauty botulinum toxin track is also affected by the dual attributes of medicine and consumption: 1) The increase in penetration rate, the acceleration of compliance substitution and the extension of indications have brought about high demand for medical beauty botulinum toxin, and with the recent supply expansion, the industry scale has experienced high growth; 2) The iteration of product innovation is slow, brand barriers are created through marketing, doctors are empowered through direct sales, and control is strengthened to enhance product competitiveness. Recently, a variety of medical botulinum toxins in China have been approved, and the promotion of low-priced products is expected to push up the penetration rate, and enterprises with strong operational capabilities will enter the market or promote the evolution of the pattern.CITIC Securities: Potential policies such as consumer vouchers are expected to give birth to a staged turning point in catering demand. According to the research report of CITIC Securities, domestic consumer demand has been sluggish since 2023, and the price of the catering industry has entered a downward channel. How will China catering enterprises behave at this moment? The experience of Japanese restaurant enterprises may provide some enlightenment. Although the differences between macro and national conditions prevent China from simply repeating the price war of Japanese catering and its impact, the catering competition in high-speed cities in China is similar to that in Japan in structure. The research report believes that the change of restaurant supply and CPI performance can be used as a forward-looking indicator to judge when the current price war will end, while potential policies such as consumer vouchers are expected to give birth to catering demand and form a stage turning point. Two main lines are recommended: 1) Mature catering enterprises pay attention to the same-store sales and valuation improvement brought about by the rebound of CPI, while enterprises with serious decline in same-store sales before have higher performance and valuation resilience. 2) Growing catering enterprises pay more attention to the rhythm of income growth and profit release.The vice chairman of Bosch's supervisory board said that as many as 10,000 jobs in Germany are at risk. Frank Sell, vice chairman of the supervisory board of Bosch, the world's top auto parts supplier, said on Wednesday that a series of layoffs announced by Bosch recently have put about 8,000-10,000 jobs in Germany at risk. Sell, who is also the chairman of the labor committee of Bosch's key business mobile solutions division, said that Bosch's overall plan has created an atmosphere that he called "absolutely intolerable" within the group. Bosch has about 135,000 employees in Germany.


Zhong Xuegao's subsidiary was forced to execute 16.62 million yuan. According to the legal litigation information, recently, Zhongmao (Shanghai) Food Technology Co., Ltd. added a piece of information about the person to be executed, with the execution target of 16.62 million yuan. The enforcement court is the Yangpu District People's Court in Shanghai. Zhongmao (Shanghai) Food Technology Co., Ltd. was established in June 2020. The legal representative is Wang Keqin, with a registered capital of RMB 10 million, and it is wholly owned by Zhong Xuegao Food (Shanghai) Co., Ltd. Tianyan risk information shows that the company has more than 20 pieces of information about executed persons, and the total amount of execution exceeds 31.62 million yuan. In addition, there are also a number of consumption restriction orders, untrustworthy executed persons (Lao Lai) and final case information.The yield of 10-year Japanese government bonds rose by 1 basis point to 1.075%.Industrial Securities' investment strategy for the construction industry in 2025: internal and external resonance, optimistic about debt conversion and the "Belt and Road" industry, Industrial Securities Research Report said that the construction industry will face certain pressure in 2024, and it is expected that infrastructure investment will remain high in 2025, driven by the debt conversion policy. Review and prospect of plate market: central state-owned enterprises and design plates led the gains, with obvious excess returns. Main line 1: Debt conversion is expected to drive the improvement of the management quality of construction central enterprises. 1) The driving force and mode of action of this debt conversion can be compared with the "Belt and Road" market in 2014 and the PPP market in 2016, and the policy is driven from top to bottom. 2) The institutions' positions in construction central enterprises are low, and the valuation of construction central enterprises is also in the lower position of the historical center. 3) The unprecedented intensity of debt conversion will help the central enterprises to realize the double promotion of EPS and PE. Main Line 2: The Belt and Road Initiative is expected to accelerate and benefit international engineering enterprises. The "Belt and Road" market has accelerated its expansion, and international engineering enterprises are expected to accelerate their going out to sea, and their performance and valuation have both improved.

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